My Take On the Oscars

Ok, basically this will be just like my Golden Globe Predictions, but more important because they're the Oscars.


BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood


Ok, despite No Country being shot down at the Globes that doesn't change my view that it was the best movie this year. It does however increase my fear that it and There Will Be Blood (the only other film I think deserves the award) will split the votes and third less deserving flick will take the prize.



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, The Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Again this a race betwixt Clooney, Day-Lewis, and Depp. Now I favored Day-Lewis over Clooney at the Globes and that opinion still holds and I will also back Day-Lewis over Depp as well. Danny Boy was just too damn good. I will seriously be surprised if he doesn't walk away with this one.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchette, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Mome
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Now at the Globes Marion Cotillard snagged Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy that I thought for sure was for Ellen Page. Now I based this on not seeing or even hearing of Marion's performance, so I didn't think twice about it. But I don't think this will be an issue her, as I'm pretty sure Julie Christie as got this one.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Pretty much the GG best Best Supporting in a Drama again. I went with Javier then (who won), I'm sticking with him now.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Some new blood as opposed to Golden Globes, but like then I still say it's a battle between Cate Blanchett and Amy Ryan. Now I still say Ryan's was the better performance, but that is nothing against Cate's. But I was wrong with backing Ryan for the Golden Globes, so I'll probably wrong again here.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Butterfly and the Diving Bell

Another award the Coens's deserved at the Globes that they didn't get. Foreign guy directing foreign movie got it, again another one that I just didn't factor in last round, and like Best Picture I'm more worried that the Coen Brothers will be denied.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkavo, Jim Capobianco, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

I had Juno for screenplay at the Globes, were it was beaten by No Country. A deserving beat, but I figured with all the Juno love it was a shoe-in (is that how it's spelled? literally?). Well, Juno buzz has waned since then and many are even in hatred. Whatever, it's still a great script. I am glad that Ratatouille and Lars (my fav on the list) are up there, truly great scripts as well. And if Juno continues to be shunned I think Lars's also quirkier script could snatch, but probably not.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED

Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away From Her
Ronald Harwood, The Butterfly and the Diving Bell
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Ok, I won;t hide the fact that I have a huge boner for the Coen Brothers. And in fact if they made a not so stellar flick that managed to get nominated for anything, I'd probably be rooting for them to win because their entire body of work is just so fucking superb, but that being said No Country is the best they've done, and they are the greatest screenwriters to come out in the last twenty years (possible exception to Quienten Tarantino, but he's gonna have to step it up).

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey, Atonement
Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men
Jamusz Kaminiski, The Butterfly and the Diving Bell
Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood

I'm going with Roger Deakins for this one. And not just because he's up there twice and thus has the best odds. It also has to do with the fact Deakins deserves this award for his stellar work in the past and his contributions this year excel past those (well, most of them anyway). I pick Jesse James over No Country because it was the more visual beautiful film, which is kind of what cinematography is (I think; should probably double check that one of these days).

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SPECIAL EFFECTS

Michael L. Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris, Trevor Wood, Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End
John Knoll, Hal T. Hickel, Charlie Gibson, John Frazier, The Golden Compass
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier, Transformers

Let me just say this right now: I hated Transformers. Hated it. The movie was boring and nonsensical with no redeeming value. My friends will cite Megan Fox as a redeeming value, but I don't need to spend eight bucks and waste two hours to look at her being hot. Of course I realized too late it was going to a rough ride when it's opening line was: "Before time itself, there was the cube." And yet whenever I ranted at the atrocity of film making this was, I always cited that sure looked damn pretty. The one thing this movie did good (and pretty much the only thing Michael Bay can do good) was its special effects. Despite how utterly crappy this movie was, it deserves this award.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Vinceny Parannoud, Marjane Satrapi, Persopolis
Ash Brannon, Chris Buck, Surf's Up
Brad Bird, Ratatouille

It's possible that Persopolis will get this, but I have not seen this cannot vouch for it. I do know Ratatouille was pretty fucking brilliant both as story and especially animation. I think this will be the second Oscar for Brad Bird. Wait, did he win an Oscar for The Incredibles? Was The Incredibles nominated for an Oscar? Hold on, let me check. Wikipedia tells me yes to both of these.

I don't think I can give a very good account for the rest of the categories so I won't bother. Anyway those are my picks for the upcoming Oscars.